AR Wars

This week, Google announced its new platform for augmented reality, Android XR. The release appears to be a strategic move for several reasons. First, leveraging the familiarity of Android makes the platform more accessible compared to introducing something entirely new. Second, the timing couldn’t be better: smart glasses are gaining momentum after Meta’s successful launch of Ray-Ban AR glasses, which have helped normalize the concept. Meanwhile, Apple has struggled to deliver a compelling product with its Vision Pro. On top of that, Google just released the latest version of its AI model, Gemini. It’s hard to ignore the synchronicity here—Google likely worked meticulously to align these developments.

The stakes are undeniably high. Competition is increasing, with companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft advancing rapidly in AI and AR spaces. At the same time, Google is facing increasing pressure from regulators, particularly in the EU, for its monopolistic practices. Their current situation resembles the infamous Microsoft antitrust case of the 1990s, when scrutiny diverted the company’s focus and caused it to miss the mobile revolution. Google seems determined not to repeat this mistake. Rather than retreating, the company will probably be doubling down on its efforts to maintain dominance, especially in software.

While Apple is still figuring out how to design and sell the perfect AR glasses, Google has already secured partnerships with hardware manufacturers like Samsung, which plans to launch AR glasses as early as next year. This mirrors Meta’s strategy of collaborating with third-party companies to develop devices that support Horizon, its open-source AR operating system. However, Google has an edge: years of experience building scalable software ecosystems. Meta, on the other hand, is still struggling to establish itself and continues to burn money while it tries to create the metaverse. Its Orion AR glasses remain in development with no clear launch date, leaving Google well-positioned to capture market share with more affordable and widely available options.

A few years ago, I purchased a TCL television at a shockingly low price of just €299. It seemed like a great deal—until I realized the TV was designed primarily to funnel ads to me, often without a way to disable them. It became clear I’d paid for the device in more ways than one. The same dynamic may apply to Android XR. Consumers will likely find the devices attractively priced, only to later discover that Google is tracking their every move under the guise of “quality improvement.” Inevitably, advertising will follow.

Google’s likely approach will be to start without ads or costs, allowing consumers to acclimate to the platform. Over time, subtle promotional content—such as restaurant recommendations during dinner hours or movie showtimes nearby—could appear as overlays. The twist is that some of this information might be genuinely helpful, making it harder to distinguish between utility and intrusion. What begins as a cheap device might feel far more costly in terms of privacy, cognitive effort, and dependence on Google’s ecosystem.

The system’s reliance on data collection is also concerning. Every interaction with Google’s Gemini AI contributes to its training, creating a feedback loop that improves the system but raises questions about user privacy. While the answers it provides may feel like a fair trade, the real cost lies in sharing your most personal information: your interactions with the physical world. Depending on how much Google will control this new spatial ecosystem, it's clear that there's lots of data involved—and a lot of money to be made.

In a previous article, Human Speedrun, I argued that sharing experiences collectively can lead to human progress. I still believe in that vision, but I’m not quite convinced Google is the right company to set the course of such a transformative process. The trade-offs in privacy will probably not be made transparent to consumers by Google. I wonder if users will even be aware of what they’re giving up in exchange for cheap hardware and seamless AI integration?

Meta has already admitted that data shared with its visual AI models is used for training, with no option to opt out. Similarly, OpenAI’s ChatGPT forces users to either accept data sharing or erase their entire chat history, and updating personal information is unnecessarily complicated. This data-centric business model raises an unsettling question: once we’ve normalized this level of data-sharing, what’s to stop these companies from exploiting it further?

Google, under pressure from regulators and competitors, may feel particularly desperate to extract value from its leading position. Meanwhile, Microsoft appears to be waiting its turn, quietly exploring AR opportunities while leveraging OpenAI to stay competitive. Although the company’s AI chief recently previously stated that Microsoft has no immediate plans for AI hardware, it’s possible they are working on an AR operating system, securing partnerships behind the scenes.

Meta will inevitable continue to refine its AR product in collaboration with Ray-Ban, but it may not have the same resources like Google or Microsoft. limiting their scalability as a result. More importantly, their heavy reliance on apps like Instagram and WhatsApp could actually backfire if users suddenly decide to abandon those platforms. We've witnessed this effect in action recently with the X platform (formerly Twitter), where many users made their way towards Bluesky instead.

What Apple will do remains uncertain. Known for its meticulous approach, it could still disrupt the market with a well-executed product. But if the company waits too long, it risks losing ground to more affordable and widely available alternatives. Apple’s struggles with the Vision Pro and its slow adoption of AI suggest this moment could be pivotal—not just for Apple, but for the AR landscape as a whole. Other players may enter the scene, but it largely depends on the underlying platform.

Ultimately, the AR wars will be about much more than just hardware or whoever has the best LLM. As we've seen with mobile: it’s all about the ecosystem, data, and consumer trust. Whether consumers will fully grasp the implications of their choices remains to be seen. For now, the race continues, with big tech companies likely working day and night to be the first to integrate AR and AI in a way that delivers the best user experience and secures their relevance for years to come.